Lance Armstrong Weighs In: ‘2025 Tour de France Route Exposes Tadej Pogacar’s Weaknesses’
When the 2025 Tour de France route was unveiled last week, cycling enthusiasts worldwide eagerly scrutinized every detail, wondering how it would impact the race’s top contenders. The route, crafted with several punishing climbs, cobbled sectors, and lengthy time trials, appears designed to shake up the peloton’s dynamic. Yet, one high-profile former champion has added his voice to the mix with a unique perspective on the upcoming edition’s potential impact on Slovenia’s Tadej Pogacar—a two-time Tour de France winner and fan favorite. Lance Armstrong, whose own controversial career shaped an era of professional cycling, spoke candidly about how the new route could spell trouble for the young champion.
A Route Designed to Challenge
The 2025 route is ambitious, featuring 27 major climbs and three stages with long and treacherous cobbled sections that could change the standings overnight. The route is also unusually time trial-heavy for recent Tours, with two individual time trials totaling over 50 kilometers. Many fans and analysts have argued that this approach favors riders like Remco Evenepoel and Jonas Vingegaard, who thrive in time trials and on cobblestones, rather than climbers and all-rounders like Pogacar.
Lance Armstrong, whose deep knowledge of cycling’s complexities remains respected despite his own doping controversies, recently spoke out about the route and Pogacar’s chances in a conversation on his podcast The Move. Armstrong believes the new route could present significant obstacles for Pogacar, who has shown vulnerabilities in certain terrains. In particular, Armstrong focused on Pogacar’s performance in time trials and cobbled sections, suggesting these may be where his rivals could take advantage.
“It’s a brutal route, no doubt, and it’s structured in a way that’s going to force riders to excel in disciplines they might not be comfortable with,” Armstrong explained. “For someone like Pogacar, who’s amazing in the mountains but less of a specialist in time trials and cobblestones, this is a route that’s far from ideal.”
Pogacar’s Strengths—and Weaknesses
Pogacar has become known for his aggressive, attacking style, which has captivated fans and led to comparisons with cycling greats from past eras. He’s won two Tour de France titles, in 2020 and 2021, and nearly clinched a third in 2023 before finishing second to Jonas Vingegaard. Pogacar’s strengths are undeniable—his versatility, climbing ability, and fearless attacks have made him a favorite to dominate the sport. However, certain aspects of his riding have raised questions in recent seasons, particularly his time-trialling ability and experience on cobblestones.
While Pogacar is no stranger to time trials, Armstrong pointed out that the Slovenian has shown occasional signs of vulnerability in this discipline. In the 2021 Tour, he gained substantial time over his rivals in the time trial, but he has since been challenged in races that included technical and longer time-trial stages. This chink in his armor became evident in the 2023 Tour, where Vingegaard capitalized on the time trial to ultimately win.
“Pogacar is a phenomenal climber and, honestly, one of the best all-rounders we’ve seen in recent years,” Armstrong stated. “But the amount of time-trial mileage in the 2025 Tour could be a real problem for him, especially against someone like Evenepoel or Vingegaard, who are almost custom-built for those sections.”
Furthermore, Armstrong discussed the impact of the cobbled sections, noting that while Pogacar has experience riding in classic races like Paris-Roubaix, cobbles within the context of the Tour de France require a different level of skill, especially when stage wins and overall classification are on the line. “Cobbles on their own are difficult enough, but in the middle of the Tour de France, they can be a nightmare,” Armstrong said. “If you’re not used to handling them under Tour-level pressure, they’re going to take a toll on you physically and mentally.”
Armstrong’s Tactical Breakdown
- Armstrong, known for his strategic acumen during his racing career, also offered insights into how Pogacar might still contend with these route challenges. He suggested that Pogacar would need to alter his usual attacking style to adopt a more calculated approach, especially in the early stages, where he might otherwise expend unnecessary energy.
“Pogacar’s aggressiveness is a double-edged sword here,” Armstrong observed. “He loves to attack, and we’ve seen him make some incredible moves, but he can’t afford to take big risks too early. This route could punish him if he tries to attack too soon.”
Armstrong advised that Pogacar focus on pacing himself through the cobbled stages, where crashes and mechanical issues are more frequent, and conserve energy for the high mountain stages, which might be his best chance to regain time lost in the time trials. Armstrong also emphasized the importance of a strong team, as cobbled sections and technical time trials demand both mechanical reliability and strategic support.
“A strong team will be essential here,” Armstrong added. “If Pogacar’s team can protect him during the cobbled sections, keep him in position, and help him minimize time losses in the trials, he still has a chance to contend. But he’s going to have to rely on them more than he has in previous races.”
The Broader Impact on Cycling
Beyond Pogacar, Armstrong sees the 2025 Tour de France as a throwback to an era when riders had to be exceptional all-rounders to win the title. He noted that the modern Tour had shifted somewhat toward favoring climbers in recent years, but the 2025 route could redefine what it takes to be a champion.
“This year’s Tour is going to demand a lot more from everyone,” he said. “It’s not enough to just be the best climber anymore; you have to be able to handle every discipline. The winner of this year’s Tour will have to be an all-rounder of the highest caliber, and I think that’s great for the sport. It adds more complexity, more drama.”
Armstrong’s comments have already sparked debate within the cycling community. Some agree with his assessment, pointing out that Pogacar’s weaknesses on cobbles and in time trials could indeed jeopardize his chances. Others believe Armstrong may be underestimating Pogacar’s adaptability, given that he has surprised the cycling world before. Pogacar himself has not publicly responded to Armstrong’s comments, but insiders suggest he is quietly preparing for the Tour with renewed determination.
Final Thoughts
The 2025 Tour de France promises to be one of the most intense editions in recent memory, with a route that tests the very limits of each competitor. Armstrong’s insights, though controversial, highlight a shift in cycling back toward versatility and durability. While Pogacar remains a favorite, Armstrong’s comments serve as a reminder that this Tour will likely demand more than ever before.
As Armstrong concluded in his podcast: “If Pogacar can win this Tour, he’ll silence any doubts about his versatility. But if he can’t adapt, then we might be witnessing the rise of a new era of champions who can handle everything the Tour throws at them.”