As cycling fans eagerly await the “Hell of the North,” one question dominates pre-race discussions: Can Tadej Pogačar win Paris-Roubaix? After a blistering performance in the Tour of Flanders, the Slovenian sensation is set to tackle one of the most grueling one-day races on the calendar. With weather uncertainties, bone-rattling cobbled sectors, and a field of hardened classics specialists, Pogačar’s attempt to conquer Paris-Roubaix offers a captivating storyline. This deep dive will examine his recent form, historical performance, race dynamics, competition, and possible tactics to assess whether he truly has what it takes to etch his name into the Roubaix record books.
Recent Performance: Pogačar’s Tour of Flanders Triumph
Pogačar’s dominance at the 2025 Tour of Flanders served as a stark reminder that he is no longer just a Grand Tour expert—he’s a full-fledged classics contender. Displaying a potent blend of climbing power and tactical awareness, he dropped the peloton on the Oude Kwaremont and held off a chasing group to clinch a solo victory.
What made this win particularly impressive was how he handled the cobbled climbs and technical descents. His effort was calculated and controlled, revealing his evolution as a rider who can master the chaos of the spring classics. While the Tour of Flanders features climbs and smoother cobbles compared to Paris-Roubaix, the foundational skills—positioning, bike handling, and pacing—are transferable.
Takeaway: His performance in Flanders positions him as a legitimate threat in Roubaix, even if the terrain is less favorable to climbers.
Historical Context: Pogačar’s Journey with Paris-Roubaix
Pogačar’s relationship with Paris-Roubaix is still in its infancy. Unlike riders who have built careers around this brutal race, he has only dipped his toes into its murky waters. He made his Roubaix debut in 2023, finishing 18th, a respectable result given the intensity and unpredictability of the race.
Historically, general classification riders have struggled at Roubaix. The race’s flat but brutal parcours, littered with cobbled sectors, doesn’t suit climbers or time trialists. No Tour de France winner has claimed Roubaix glory since Bernard Hinault in 1981. If Pogačar wins, he would be only the second Tour de France champion to do so in over four decades—an astonishing feat in itself.
Takeaway: While he lacks a Roubaix resume, history is ripe for rewriting—and Pogačar has shown a penchant for breaking conventions.
️ Race Conditions: The Great Equalizer
Paris-Roubaix is defined by unpredictability. The 2025 edition is forecasted to have light rain and cold temperatures, meaning slippery cobbles and muddy sectors—a nightmare for many, but a stage for legends.
The race features 29 cobbled sectors, including the infamous Trouée d’Arenberg, Mons-en-Pévèle, and Carrefour de l’Arbre. These are not just physical challenges; they’re war zones where the race can be lost in a split second. Riders will need to master their bikes like motocross pros, especially if the rain turns the sectors into mud pits.
Pogačar’s technical skills have improved, but muddy cobbles are a different beast. His ability to avoid crashes, mechanicals, and bad positioning will be under the microscope.
Takeaway: The rain adds a wildcard element, and while Pogačar has skills, he’ll be venturing into a domain where experience and brute resilience often trump finesse.
Competition: The Cobble Kings Stand in His Way
Even with Pogačar’s red-hot form, the competition is fierce. Several specialists will look to use their experience and power to exploit any weakness.
Key Rivals:
- Mathieu van der Poel (Alpecin-Deceuninck)
The reigning Paris-Roubaix champion, van der Poel has the perfect blend of explosiveness and cobble-handling skills. If he hits form, he’s the man to beat. - Wout van Aert (Visma–Lease a Bike)
A Roubaix runner-up in the past and always a podium threat, van Aert’s raw power and savvy positioning make him a nightmare opponent. - Mads Pedersen (Lidl-Trek)
Pedersen thrives in rough conditions and has proven he can ride cobbles with the best. If it comes down to a small group sprint, he’s lethal. - Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ)
A diesel engine, Küng is often at the sharp end in Roubaix. While not flashy, his consistency is deadly.
Takeaway: Pogačar isn’t just racing the course; he’s battling a field stacked with riders who have made Roubaix their playground.
Strategies for Success: How Pogačar Can Win
So, how can a two-time Tour de France champion beat the odds and triumph in the most savage one-day race on Earth? Here are some key strategies:
1. Ride Aggressively, But Smart
Pogačar’s signature move is attacking early and riding solo. In Roubaix, that might not always work. He must balance aggression with patience. A well-timed attack after Carrefour de l’Arbre could be decisive.
2. Stay Forward, Stay Safe
Positioning is critical. Crashes often happen at the back of the bunch. He needs to stay near the front, entering every sector—especially Arenberg and Mons-en-Pévèle.
3. Rely on Team UAE Emirates
While not known for their classic pedigree, the UAE has improved. Riders like Tim Wellens or Marc Hirschi can shepherd Pogačar into sectors and help neutralize breakaways. A team-first approach could minimize chaos.
4. Technical Equipment Choices
Pogačar must rely on top-notch tech—a key part of Roubaix. Tubeless tires with lower pressure, a custom geometry frame for cobbles, and perhaps even double-wrapped handlebars for extra cushioning—all can help preserve his energy.
5. Mental Fortitude
Above all, Roubaix is psychological warfare. Mud, fatigue, crashes—it’s a war of attrition. Pogačar must embrace the suffering and stay mentally locked in from start to finish.
Takeaway: Winning Roubaix will take more than strength; it demands a combination of strategy, team support, equipment optimization, and emotional grit.
Final Thoughts: Can Pogačar Do It?
Tadej Pogačar has already reshaped what fans expect from a Grand Tour rider. His appetite for the classics, bold racecraft, and ever-expanding skillset position him as a cycling unicorn—someone capable of rewriting history.
But Paris-Roubaix is not a race that yields to talent alone. It’s a proving ground of pain, where even the best are humbled. He could win if Pogačar manages to survive the chaos, avoid bad luck, and strike at the right moment. It would be a seismic shift in the cycling world and place him among the sport’s all-time greats.
Will he conquer the cobbles? We’ll soon find out. But one thing is certain—Tadej Pogačar’s journey into the heart of cycling’s darkest battlefield will be must-watch drama.
️ Stay tuned for more race previews, live updates, and post-race breakdowns as the cobblestones call and cycling’s gladiators answer.
