In a Tour de France packed with drama, dazzling performances, and rising tension among rivals, one voice from cycling’s controversial past has reignited the debate surrounding Tadej Pogačar’s true form. On the latest episode of The Move podcast, Lance Armstrong—seven-time Tour winner turned commentator—spoke candidly about Stage 16 and delivered a message that’s caught the attention of fans and pundits alike: “I’m not buying it.”
The American was referring to suggestions that Pogačar may be fading in the final week of the 2025 Tour de France. The Slovenian, who had previously shown signs of vulnerability in the high mountains, stunned viewers by not only attacking on the iconic Mont Ventoux but doing so with such force that he shattered the previous record for the climb—an almost mythical feat in cycling lore.
Armstrong’s take? If this is what “struggling” looks like, then the rest of the peloton is in deep trouble.
“You Don’t Set Records on Ventoux When You’re Hurting”
“Everyone’s talking about how Pogačar looks cooked, how he’s vulnerable,” Armstrong said, his tone unmistakably skeptical. “I watched that stage—everyone did. You don’t smash Mont Ventoux when you’re hurting. I don’t care how good your poker face is. If you’re hurting, you’re not doing what he did on that mountain.”
Stage 16 was billed as a potentially decisive day. After a grueling second week, many expected the contenders to measure their efforts, perhaps saving their legs for the brutal Alpine finishes to come. But Pogačar had other plans. On the scorching slopes of Mont Ventoux—a climb etched into cycling history for both its brutality and drama—he launched a devastating attack, dropping his closest rivals and ascending faster than any rider in Tour de France history.
The previous record, set under vastly different conditions and with fewer advances in equipment and nutrition, had stood for over two decades. Pogačar’s performance not only rewrote the record books but also rekindled questions about his condition—and the accuracy of his reported “fatigue.”
Armstrong: “He Knows Exactly What He’s Doing”
Joined on the podcast by his long-time friend and former teammate George Hincapie, Armstrong went further in his analysis of Pogačar’s Tour strategy. He suggested that the Slovenian might be deliberately allowing small moments of perceived weakness to mislead his rivals.
“Look, this kid is smart. He’s got one of the best teams, one of the best setups in the sport. He’s not just riding with his legs—he’s riding with his head,” Armstrong said. “If he gives off the vibe that he’s struggling, it changes how guys race him. Maybe they overextend themselves. Maybe they go for moves they shouldn’t. He’s playing chess.”
Hincapie, often the more measured of the two, agreed but added nuance. “It’s possible that he was tired earlier in the week, but great riders—especially champions—have this switch. They can suffer, but when the moment calls for it, they go all-in. What he did on Ventoux was him flipping that switch.”
The Jorgenson Dynamic: A Brewing Rivalry?
Also discussed during the podcast was the brewing tension between Pogačar and American rider Matteo Jorgenson, who has emerged as one of the revelations of this year’s Tour. Jorgenson, riding for Jumbo-Visma, has quietly become a GC contender and has shown increasing confidence in going toe-to-toe with the likes of Pogačar.
Stage 16 also featured some tense exchanges between the two, with on-the-road interactions that hinted at friction. According to reports, Jorgenson was visibly frustrated when Pogačar refused to collaborate in a chase group earlier in the stage—a tactical move that may have cost the American valuable time.
“He’s not just riding against Pogačar’s legs—he’s riding against his mind games too,” Hincapie noted. “That’s what makes this dynamic interesting.”
Armstrong didn’t mince words. “Matteo’s tough, and he’s got talent, but right now he’s playing in Tadej’s playground. And Tadej doesn’t lose often at home.”
While neither rider has publicly addressed the tension in depth, the body language on the road tells a compelling story: Jorgenson is no longer content with simply finishing in the top ten. He wants a shot at the yellow jersey—and Pogačar knows it.
Record on Ventoux: What It Means
Mont Ventoux is one of the most feared climbs in all of cycling—a barren, wind-swept mountain that has humbled even the greatest of riders. When Armstrong, Marco Pantani, and Chris Froome tamed the “Giant of Provence” in their respective eras, it was seen as a rite of passage. For Pogačar to not only conquer it but to demolish the climb’s best time raises serious questions—not about credibility, but about whether we’re witnessing the peak of modern climbing performance.
“Physiologically, what Pogačar did is incredible,” Hincapie said. “He’s lighter, the bikes are better, nutrition is dialed in, but still—it’s one of the best performances ever on a climb that has broken careers.”
Armstrong added: “People always want to talk watts and numbers. All I know is, if you’re breaking records on that mountain, you’re not on the decline. You’re just peaking at the right time.”
The Final Week: A Tour Still in Play?
With a few brutal mountain stages and a decisive time trial still to come, the 2025 Tour is far from over. Jonas Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel, and Jorgenson are all within striking distance, and none have shown signs of capitulation. But if Pogačar is indeed “struggling,” as some headlines suggest, he’s doing a remarkable job of hiding it.
“Don’t expect him to just defend from now on,” Armstrong warned. “Pogačar likes to attack. He smells blood. If he feels good, he’s going to keep pushing.”
For Armstrong, whose own career was built on controlling Tours from start to finish, Pogačar’s approach is refreshingly aggressive. “The guy doesn’t just want to win—he wants to dominate. That’s rare. And right now, I think he’s got the edge.”
Cycling World Reacts
The podcast immediately sparked a flurry of online reaction. Fans debated whether Armstrong’s skepticism is warranted or simply a product of his combative history with the sport.
But regardless of opinions, one thing is certain: Pogačar has once again become the center of the Tour de France conversation, not just for what he says or how he looks, but for what he does on the road.
“Records don’t lie,” wrote one fan on social media. “Mont Ventoux told the truth. Pogačar isn’t fading. He’s flying.”
Final Word
Whether you’re in Armstrong’s camp—convinced Pogačar is bluffing his way through strategic brilliance—or among those who believe the Slovenian has been fighting through fatigue with sheer class, there’s no denying one fact: the 2025 Tour de France is delivering one of the most fascinating chapters in recent memory.
And with the Alps looming and tension rising between rivals, the truth about Pogačar’s form will soon be undeniable.
For now, though, Armstrong’s words linger: “I’m not buying it.” Maybe he’s onto something. Maybe, just maybe, we’re watching a masterclass in Tour de France deception unfold in real time.
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