The season may just be underway, but the cycling world is already focused on Paris–Roubaix — the brutal Monument where technique often outweighs pure physiology.
After the dramatic 2025 edition, expectations are high for another showdown between Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogačar.
Their duel last year delivered fireworks before the world champion’s crash altered the finale. The big question for 2026: can Pogačar genuinely threaten the Dutchman on the cobbles?
A Monument Debut That Shocked the Peloton
On his first appearance in the Hell of the North, Pogačar launched long-range attacks from over 100 km out — an unusually aggressive strategy even by Classics standards. Only Van der Poel could consistently match the pace.
Former Roubaix champion Andrea Tafi expects another two-man battle:
“The race could again come down to a duel between Pogačar and Van der Poel.”
However, Tafi adds caution.
Despite Pogačar’s surprising competitiveness in a race far removed from his climbing-heavy pedigree, victory is not guaranteed due to the unpredictable nature of Roubaix — punctures, positioning, weather, and crashes can decide everything.
Why Cyclocross Skills Give Van der Poel the Edge
Van der Poel’s dominance — three consecutive Roubaix victories — isn’t only about power. According to Tafi, the decisive gap lies in technical handling.
“Being a cyclocross rider gives a huge advantage.”
Cyclocross background translates directly into Roubaix performance:
Faster cornering on cobbled sectors
Stable bike handling on uneven pavé
Efficient pedalling over rough stones
Confidence in chaotic race situations
Tafi even linked Pogačar’s crash to technique rather than strength, noting that minor mistakes become race-ending incidents on these roads.
Determination Keeps Pogačar in the Fight
Despite the technical deficit, Tafi stresses Pogačar remains the most complete rider in the world. His obsessive goal-driven preparation could close the gap quickly.
Roubaix preparation is unique: riders can simulate sectors in training, but external variables — wind, dust, crashes, mechanicals — always shape the outcome.
That unpredictability keeps the rivalry compelling.
Does Rider Weight Still Matter on the Cobbles?
Traditionally, heavier riders had an advantage on pavé. Tafi believes modern technology has reduced that factor:
Wider tyres improve grip
Modern frames absorb vibration
Optimized pressure systems increase stability
As a result, body composition is now secondary to positioning and handling. According to Tafi, Pogačar has nearly reached the physical level required to win — only technical refinement remains.
Outlook for Paris–Roubaix 2026
All signs point to another Monument clash defined by contrast:
Van der Poel → technical mastery and experience
Pogačar → adaptability and relentless ambition
If the Slovenian improves his handling on the cobbles, the race could evolve from dominance into a true rivalry — potentially one of the defining battles of modern Classics racing.
FAQ
Who is favorite for Paris–Roubaix 2026?
Van der Poel remains the favorite due to his technical superiority and past victories.
Why is cyclocross important for Roubaix?
It improves balance, cornering, and control on uneven terrain — crucial on cobbles.
Can Pogačar realistically win Roubaix?
Yes. Experts believe he is physically ready, but must refine bike handling to match specialists.
Does weight matter in modern Roubaix racing?
Less than before. Advances in equipment have reduced its importance compared to skill and positioning.
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