In a dramatic twist just 48 hours before the final verdict in Paris, Team Visma | Lease a Bike and their Tour de France contender Jonas Vingegaard have been dealt a potentially fatal blow. A sudden and controversial route alteration on Stage 19 has eliminated their carefully prepared “Plan B” — a tactical masterpiece months in the making — leaving the defending champion in a precarious position with the yellow jersey all but slipping from his grasp.
The decision, announced late Thursday evening by Tour organizers ASO (Amaury Sport Organisation), has sent shockwaves through the peloton, with teams, fans, and analysts stunned at the implications. For Vingegaard, sitting second in the General Classification and trailing just 31 seconds behind UAE Team Emirates’ Tadej Pogačar, this isn’t just an inconvenient shake-up — it may be the moment that defines the 2025 Tour de France.
A Stage Redrawn, A Strategy Destroyed
Originally slated as a brutal test of resilience through the Jura Mountains, Stage 19 from Moirans-en-Montagne to Champagnole was billed as Visma’s last real opportunity to isolate Pogačar before the largely ceremonial procession into Paris on Sunday. The original route included a series of sharp climbs and treacherous descents — terrain that played directly into the Dutch squad’s strength in technical riding and Vingegaard’s aggressive descending style.
But following concerns over flash flooding and potential mudslides — triggered by an unusually wet July and further exacerbated by recent thunderstorms — local authorities and ASO made the call to reroute a key section of the stage, flattening the profile significantly and removing the decisive Côte de Thésy and Montée de Lavigny climbs in the final third of the race.
What remains is a 143-kilometer transition stage that ends with a slight uphill sprint — far from the war of attrition Visma had planned. The new profile plays directly into the hands of UAE’s all-rounders and neutralizes the kind of chaos Visma had hoped to orchestrate.
“Plan B” Crumbles in Real Time
For Visma, Stage 19 was more than just a hope — it was a fallback, a carefully orchestrated trap designed in case they couldn’t dislodge Pogačar earlier in the Alps. With the Slovenian proving nearly unshakeable in the mountains and dominating the final time trial, “Plan A” was already out of the equation. Stage 19 was the last real opening.
According to team insiders, Visma had devised a sequence of attacks to launch on the Côte de Thésy climb, using Sepp Kuss and Wilco Kelderman to force an early break before having Matteo Jorgenson ramp up the pace on the Montée de Lavigny. Vingegaard would then launch a solo descent toward Champagnole, aiming to create gaps on the tricky downhill and pick up a time buffer before Paris.
“Every piece of our preparation was built around that stage,” a Visma staffer, speaking anonymously, told reporters. “It was the perfect storm — or it would have been. With the route change, it’s like we lost a queen in chess two moves before checkmate.”
Reactions from the Camp: Frustration and Focus
Vingegaard, who has maintained remarkable composure throughout the Tour after returning from a life-threatening crash in April, was visibly disappointed but diplomatic at the post-stage briefing in Bourg-en-Bresse.
“Of course, it’s not ideal,” he said. “We had our eyes on that stage as a real opportunity, and now it’s changed a lot. But we have to respect the organizers’ decision and stay focused. The Tour is never over until Paris.”
Team director Grischa Niermann was more pointed: “We respect the safety concerns, but we also believe a more collaborative approach would’ve been possible. We were not given adequate time to prepare a new strategy. This Tour has had a lot of surprises, but this was the most painful one yet.”
Pogačar Stays Calm, But Not Overconfident
Meanwhile, Pogačar — who stands to become only the sixth man in history to win four or more Tours de France — acknowledged the advantage the route change handed him but insisted that the race isn’t over.
“Every day in yellow is a challenge, no matter what the terrain is,” the UAE leader said with his characteristic grin. “Jonas is a great rider. He’s never out of the game until the Champs-Élysées.”
Pogačar’s UAE team is arguably the strongest it has ever been. With Adam Yates and João Almeida in sublime form, and veteran Marc Soler managing pace on flatter stages, their control of the peloton has been nearly total. The route change means they’re likely to maintain that grip through Stage 20, a mid-mountain profile unlikely to shake the standings significantly.
Fan and Rider Backlash Builds
Online, cycling fans were quick to express dismay at the timing and transparency of the change. “You can’t move the finish line of a chess match mid-game,” wrote one popular cycling analyst on X (formerly Twitter). Others pointed out that route adjustments, while not unprecedented, are rarely so significant this late in a Grand Tour.
Several riders also voiced frustration. AG2R’s Felix Gall, who had hoped for a shot at a stage win on the original profile, said: “We’ve trained for months for this terrain, and now it’s neutralized. It’s disappointing. Weather safety is important, but this feels like over-caution.”
Veteran sprinter Arnaud Démare added: “If this favors the yellow jersey, people will always question it. Even if it’s fair, perception matters.”
What Happens Next: A Tour Still in the Balance
While Stage 20 features the iconic climbs of the Vosges, including the Ballon d’Alsace, the final 10km plateau finish is not as selective as previous editions. It offers less opportunity for explosive attacks — especially when teams like UAE have grown adept at controlling tempo and protecting gaps.
If Vingegaard is to win his third consecutive Tour, it will require an all-in gamble on Stage 20 — perhaps even a long-range move in the mold of Andy Schleck’s legendary raid in 2011. But with 31 seconds to make up and limited terrain to do it, it will take more than legs; it will take bravery, unity, and a bit of luck.
The situation is made more complex by third-place Remco Evenepoel, just 28 seconds behind Vingegaard and hungry to upset both giants. The Belgian, riding for Soudal–Quick-Step, remains a wildcard — capable of detonating the status quo if he senses weakness from either man.
Paris Awaits — But Not Gently
With the Grand Finale just two days away, the 2025 Tour de France remains delicately poised. What should have been a three-week duel concluding in a straightforward fashion is now mired in what-ifs and might-have-beens.
For Visma and Vingegaard, the road to Paris no longer holds the promise of Plan B — only the faint hope of a miracle on Stage 20.
For Pogačar, the yellow jersey is closer than ever. But in the Tour de France, the only certainty is uncertainty.
Stay tuned. The final act is about to begin.
Leave a Reply